Inequity as a Strategic Threat

“Inequality is not just a serious social problem. It has internal and external strategic implications and constitutes a significant threat to national security.”

By Chagai Tzuriel for Heart of a Nation

Growing inequality has been leading to growing tension between publics and establishments, not only in countries with authoritarian regimes, but in liberal democracies in the west, including the United States, as well.

Large frustrated and disgruntled publics who did not enjoy the fruits of globalization and were even hurt by it in their view, rebelled against it, whilst populist nationalist leaders rode the wave and fomented it at one and the same time.

In the internal arena, these angry publics, and the leaders who lead them and are led by them, can advance radical agendas, through ballot boxes or the streets, and threaten the social fabric, the rule of law, democracy, and the security of individuals and groups.

While globalization extricated millions of people from poverty and illiteracy, it has also highlighted and to a certain extent deepened the disparity between countries (in wages, working conditions and standard of life), and within countries (between different economic sectors and between urban centers and the countryside).

Analysis of global trends shows that inequality is a major shaping factor — it is the root cause behind many global developments. Not only inequality in income, but also in education, health, and opportunities. According to most studies, while many people are better off, inequality within states has grown and inequality between states remains high.

The transfer of manufacturing to the east as well as automation, which led to extensive loss of jobs, contributed to the rise of inequality, and the unprecedented connectivity between people all over the globe heightened awareness and increased various forms of protest against inequality.

In the recent year, the Coronavirus pandemic also highlighted inequality. Within countries, it accentuated inequality between the center and the social and geographic periphery (which was manifested among other things in “digital disparities” — disparities in accessibility to personal computers and to the wideband communications). Between countries, inequality is highlighted by the disparities in the availability of the vaccine around the world.

According to the World Health Organization, as of the beginning of April, out of the 700 million vaccines distributed around the world, more than 87% went to high or medium-high income countries, and only 0.2% to low-income countries.

In the international arena, apart from its devastating implication for millions of people, vaccine inequality plays into the hands of the Chinese and Russian “vaccine diplomacy”, aimed at bolstering their global image and influence at the expense of the United States and the west.

According to the Associated Press (early March), China’s vaccine diplomacy succeeded beyond all expectations and it looks like most of the world’s population, especially third world, will be vaccinated with Chinese vaccines (one of which has also been approved recently for emergency use by the WHO).

The vaccine inequality also forebodes a future where in addition to the “classic” socio-economic disparities within states and between states, there will be a new kind of inequality — between states that can develop advanced life changing technologies, states that can buy them, and states that can neither develop or buy them.

According to the global trends assessment published recently by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), the disparities within states and between states are expected to continue to grow in the next two decades. According to the NIC, the gap between public expectations and the ability of governments to meet them will also grow, and this will lead to a further rise in tensions, political volatility, and threat to democracy.

In Israel, residues of past inequality, and present disparities between the center and the social and geographical periphery, are intertwined in the schisms between Jews and Arabs, between Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews and between secular and religious Jews, and continue to resonate today in Israeli politics and streets.

The rounds of fighting with the Hamas also highlight again and again the inequality in the availability of shelters and safe- rooms in different parts of Israel, and in the attitude toward attacks on the center and on the periphery.

Inequality, then, is an important, if not the most important destabilizing factor in the world. It can lead, and indeed has led, to wars and civil wars.

The internal threat posed by inequality can be more dangerous than “conventional” external threats, especially when the internal and external threats converge.

It is therefore necessary to define inequality as a significant strategic threat, and to set reducing disparities as a permanent top national priority, and not only in response to crises.

Chagai Tzuriel is on the Advisory Committee of Heart of a Nation. From 2016–2020, he assessed global trends and threats as director general of the Intelligence Ministry in Israel. For information about Heart of a Nation visit: heartofanation.io